France, for many reasons, dare not offend England and America beyond a
point. Thus, in every country except America, a successful Communist
revolution is impossible for economico-political reasons. America,
being self-contained and strong, would be capable, so far as material
conditions go, of achieving a successful revolution; but in America
the psychological conditions are as yet adverse. There is no other
civilized country where capitalism is so strong and revolutionary
Socialism so weak as in America. At the present moment, therefore,
though it is by no means impossible that Communist revolutions may
occur all over the Continent, it is nearly certain that they cannot be
successful in any real sense. They will have to begin by a war against
America, and possibly England, by a paralysis of industry, by
starvation, militarism and the whole attendant train of evils with
which Russia has made us familiar.
That Communism, whenever and wherever it is adopted, will have to
begin by fighting the bourgeoisie, is highly probable. The important
question is not whether there is to be fighting, but how long and
severe it is to be. A short war, in which Communism won a rapid and
easy victory, would do little harm. It is long, bitter and doubtful
wars that must be avoided if anything of what makes Communism
desirable is to survive.
Two practical consequences flow from this conclusion: first, that
nothing can succeed until America is either converted to Communism, or
at any rate willing to remain neutral; secondly, that it is a mistake
to attempt to inaugurate Communism in a country where the majority are
hostile, or rather, where the active opponents are as strong as the
active supporters, because in such a state of opinion a very severe
civil war is likely to result.
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